Although the country has never been a responsible actor on climate change, its peculiar inability to pass any significant legislative climate policy would set back its self-conception, international reputation, and economic mojo. The United States, in particular, would be left measurably worse. Read: The Democrats really are that dense about climate change Carbon emissions will remain high, and the basic framework of the Paris Agreement on climate change may start to crumble. (They may include fossil-fuel prices, which could stay elevated for longer.) But over the coming decade, the world will wind up a hotter, poorer place. If Congress fails to pass climate legislation, the effects won’t be felt immediately outside of a few areas. “My crystal ball is cloudier than it’s been in a long time.”īut we can make some safe bets. “Who the hell knows?” Danny Cullenward, the policy director at the think tank CarbonPlan, told me. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has inaugurated a new price regime for fossil fuels: Oil is now trading at all-time highs in most major currencies, and America’s liquid-natural-gas exports are helping create a single, global price for the commodity. Even setting the legislative uncertainty aside, this year has been one of the most destabilizing moments for energy markets this century. Some of them have found it too depressing to contemplate. So for the sake of mental preparation, if nothing else, it’s worth asking: What will happen then? Over the past few days, I’ve asked this question of energy analysts and climate scholars. And the United States will stumble into a fourth decade without significant legislative climate policy-or even a coherent energy policy. Come November, Democrats will likely lose one or both houses of Congress. Even though President Joe Biden described climate change as one of the country’s “four historic crises” during the campaign, his administration-like the Obama administration before it-will have failed to pass a climate bill. Democrats may not admit defeat until the last day of September, when this year’s reconciliation resolution expires.Īt that point, the record will be clear. So it seems possible, even probable, that sometime in the next three or four weeks, Schrodinger’s climate deal will turn out to have been dead all along. Reconciliation, the parliamentary procedure that senators use to pass legislation with 51 votes, gobbles up floor time, so even if Manchin does agree to a deal, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer may not be able to get it to a final vote before the clock runs out. Now only about 17 working days remain before Congress’s August recess. Last month, an environmental lobbyist told me that if the talks did not produce a framework deal by Memorial Day, then he didn’t think they would succeed at all. Senators are now back at the negotiating table, trying to work within the rules Manchin has insisted on.īut their timeline is dwindling.
The main obstacles, so far, have been Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, the owner of a coal-trading company, who wants any deal to reduce the federal budget deficit, and Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, who refuses to increase tax rates, the easiest way to satisfy Manchin’s deficit-reduction goal. For the past 18 months, Senate Democrats have been trying to find a climate deal acceptable to all 50 of their members.
0 kommentar(er)
